Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT
Volume 11, Issue 4, Pages 345-359Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10666-006-9043-9
Keywords
water quality models; uncertainty analysis; response surfaces; reduced-form modeling; metamodels; regulatory decision support; pollution control
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Environmental models are often too large and cumbersome for effective use in regulatory decision making or in the characterization of uncertainty. This paper describes and compares four response surfaces that could complement a large-scale water quality model, the U.S. National Water Pollution Control Assessment Model (NWPCAM), in simulation and regulatory decision support applications. Results show that a physically based reduced-form model that exploits the mathematical structure of the underlying water quality model is a better predictor of policy-relevant outputs than the polynomial expansions that are frequently used in response surface studies.
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