Journal
VACCINE
Volume 24, Issue 44-46, Pages 6701-6707Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.067
Keywords
influenza; epidemic; pandemic; mortality; transmissibility; reproduction number; Canada; England and Wales
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There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. In particular, it remains unclear why some interpandemic seasons are associated with unusually high mortality impact, sometimes comparable to that of pandernics. Here we compare the epidemiological patterns of the unusually deadly 1951 influenza epidemic (A/H1N1) in England and Wales and Canada with those of surrounding epidemic and pandemic seasons, in terms of overall mortality impact and transmissibility. Based on the statistical and mathematical analysis of vital statistics and morbidity epidemic curves in these two countries, we show that the 1951 epidemic was associated with both higher mortality impact and higher transmissibility than the 1957 and 1968 pandernics. Surprisingly in Liverpool, considered the 'epicenter' of the severe 1951 epidemic, the mortality impact and transmissibility even surpassed the 1918 pandemic. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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