Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal

Tropospheric ozone and aerosols are radiatively important trace species, whose concentrations have increased dramatically since preindustrial times and are projected to continue to change in the future. The evolution of ozone and aerosol concentrations from 1860 to 2100 is simulated on the basis of estimated historical emissions and four different future emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1B, B1, and A1FI). The simulations suggest that the tropospheric burden of ozone has increased by 50% and sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol burdens have increased by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, since preindustrial times. Projected ozone changes over the next century range from -6% to + 43%, depending on the emissions scenario. Sulfate concentrations are projected to increase for the next several decades but then to decrease by 2100 to 4-45% below their 2000 values. Simulated ozone concentrations agree well with present-day observations and recent trends. Preindustrial surface concentrations of ozone are shown to be sensitive to the assumed anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, but in all cases they overestimate the few available measurements from that era. Simulated tropospheric burdens of aerosols are sensitive by up to a factor of 2 to assumptions about the rate of aerosol wet deposition in the model. The concentrations of ozone and aerosols produced by this study are provided as climate-forcing agents in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model to estimate their effects on climate. The aerosol distributions from this study and the resulting optical depths are evaluated in a companion paper by P. Ginoux et al. (2006).