Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 331, Issue 1-2, Pages 293-299Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.05.017
Keywords
statistical models; river flow forecasting; goal programming; auto regressive moving average
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River flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several methods have been developed for this purpose and one of the most famous techniques is the Auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model. In the research reported here, the goal was to minimize the error for a specific season of the year as well as for the complete series. Goal programming (GP) was used to estimate the ARMA model parameters. Shaloo Bridge station on the Karun River with 68 years of observed stream flow data was selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results when compared with the usual method of maximum likelihood estimation were favorable with respect to the new proposed algorithm. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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