A simple null model predicts fruit-frugivore interactions in a temperate rainforest

Studies of seed dispersal mutualisms typically test for adaptive relationships between fruits and frugivores. Here, I take the opposite approach, and ask what relationships would be expected based on chance encounters between mutualists. I derived a simple null model to predict pair-wise relationships between fruit and frugivore species. I assumed that all frugivores had identical fruit preferences, but allowed for interspecific variation in plant abundances, frugivore abundances and fruit phenologies. Under these conditions, the number of visits each frugivore species makes to each plant species results from the product of plant abundances and frugivore abundances when each plant species produces fruit. I then tested null model predictions with observations in a temperate rainforest in British Columbia, Canada. I measured the abundance and phenology of seven bird-dispersed plant species, seasonal changes in the abundances of six avian frugivore species and 212 interactions between them. Empirical results were generally consistent with predictions, suggesting that relationships between birds and fruits are structured randomly. However, some variation in relationships between observations and predictions was observed, suggesting deterministic processes may also be important. Overall results illustrate that predictable relationships between fruit and frugivore species can result from random encounters between mutualists.