Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey:: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth

In this study, Turkey's energy sector was overviewed during the period of 1970-2002. The total energy consumption (TEC) was modeled by using the economic growth (proxied by gross national product-GNP) and population increase, which are the two important factors to determine the energy consumption for developing countries. In addition, the relationship between the TEC and total CO2 (TCO2) emission was studied. For this purpose, regression analysis was performed and the strong relationship between TEC and TCO2 (R-2 = 0.998) was modeled. Also, results showed that a regression model can be used to predict the TEC from the country population and the GNP with high confidence (R-2 = 0.996). Using the models developed in the study, TEC as a function of the targeted economic growth (annual rate of GNP increase) published in the National Development Plan and TCO2 based on the TEC were forecasted up to year 2015. Additionally, the TCO2 was also calculated by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method and the results from the two methods were compared. It was seen that the values predicted by IPCC method were considerably higher. Based on the findings of the study, some recommendations were presented to be considered for the future energy policies to conform to the Framework Convention on Climate Change signed by Turkey on 18 December 2003. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.