Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE
Volume 23, Issue 1, Pages 33-69Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4
Keywords
probabilistic forecast; forecast assumptions; time series; empirical errors; expert judgement; scaled model of error
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The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe' (UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the-sometimes conflicting-results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries.
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