Journal
ENGINEERING GEOLOGY
Volume 90, Issue 3-4, Pages 186-192Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
Keywords
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis; error; ground motion prediction
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Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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