Journal
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume 20, Issue 8, Pages 1593-1599Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4075.1
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Previous research has shown that seasonal mean variations in both the subtropical/ extratropical sea level pressures over the central North Pacific and the subsurface heat content anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific are significantly related to the state of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) 12 - 18 months later. Here we find that positive ( negative) subsurface temperature anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific during boreal summer/ fall, followed by negative ( positive) anomalies in the sea level pressure fields over the subtropical central North Pacific during boreal winter, tend to result in positive ( negative) mature ENSO events 12 - 15 months later ( i. e., during the following boreal winter). When the intervening sea level pressure anomalies are of the same sign as the preceding heat- content anomalies, the correlation between the heat- content anomalies and the following boreal- winter ENSO state disappears. There is still some relation between the boreal- winter sea level pressure anomalies and the ENSO state the following year when the two precursor patterns are of the same sign; however, the correlation is smaller and the ENSO events tend to be weaker. Additional analysis indicates that the two precursor fields are related to one another; however, the sea level pressure variations contain more unique information about, and provide better predictability of, the state of the following ENSO system than do the heat content anomalies.
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