Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate-carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO2 that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO2 fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO2 growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO2 fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO2 rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO2 fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate-carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO2 fertilization results in substantially higher future CO2 levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO2 on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO2 fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo-temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle - notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO2 fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate-carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO2 fertilization) feedback is removed.