Journal
BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER
Volume 96, Issue 9, Pages 1484-1488Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
Keywords
epidemiology; projections; burden of disease; England
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We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.
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