Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume 340, Issue 1-2, Pages 63-77Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.04.008
Keywords
probabilistic forecasting; flood stage; support vector regression; fuzzy inference; defuzzification
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study is to perform real-time probabilistic flood stage forecasting. The proposed method consists of a deterministic stage forecast derived from the support vector regression, and a probability distribution of forecast error based on the fuzzy inference model. The probabilistic flood stage forecasts can then be obtained by combining the deterministic stage forecasts with the error probability distributions. The proposed approach is applied to the Lang-Yang River in Taiwan pertaining to validation events of six flash floods. The probability distributions of stage forecasts 1-6 h ahead are made, and the predictive uncertainty information is presented and discussed in various aspects. Forecasting results examined by forecast hydrographs with a 95% confidence interval, and the percentages of data included in the confidence region, indicate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available