A Scenario-Based Assessment Model - SBAM

Scenario generation methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the technological environment and to support the shaping of long-term technology policies. Although scenario generation methods are conceptually useful in the shaping of long-term technology policies, the literature suggests that there is a methodological gap between the two. In an effort to bridge this gap, the authors propose a Scenario-Based Assessment Model (SBAM). This work introduces the principles and methodological basics of the SBAM. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate how this model can be applied. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.