Journal
ANNALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
Volume 17, Issue 7, Pages 564-568Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.10.014
Keywords
theoretical models; computer simulation; chronic disease; epidemiology
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Funding
- NCRR NIH HHS [5M01 RR00056] Funding Source: Medline
- NIAID NIH HHS [1 R01 AI45168-01A1] Funding Source: Medline
- NICHD NIH HHS [P01 HD30367] Funding Source: Medline
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We propose dynamic systems models as one component of the epidemiologic toolbox. Systems models reflect the fact that diseases are caused within complex molecular, biological, and social systems, with positive and negative feedback. Such models predict empiric observations, provide a framework for clarifying what new data is needed, allow for complex interactions between variables at levels from the subcellular to the community, and incorporate known feedbacks between systems elements at these various levels. In all of these ways, they have the capability to advance the science of epidemiology.
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