Journal
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
Volume 166, Issue 3, Pages 355-363Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwm082
Keywords
communicable diseases; emerging; disease outbreaks; disease transmission; Markov chains; models; statistical; SARS virus; severe acute respiratory syndrome
Categories
Funding
- NIAID NIH HHS [T32 AI007535, T32 AI07535] Funding Source: Medline
- NIGMS NIH HHS [U01 GM076497, 5U01GM076497] Funding Source: Medline
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The extensive data collection and contact tracing that occurred during the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong, China, allowed the authors to examine how the probability of transmission varied from the date of symptom onset to the date of hospitalization for household contacts of SARS patients. Using a discrete-time likelihood model, the authors estimated the transmission probability per contact for each day following the onset of symptoms. The results suggested that there may be two peaks in the probability of SARS transmission, the first occurring around day 2 after symptom onset and the second occurring approximately 10 days after symptom onset. Index patients who were aged 60 years or older or whose lactate dehydrogenase level was elevated upon admission to the hospital (indicating higher viral loads) were more likely to transmit SARS to their contacts. There was little variation in the daily transmission probabilities before versus after the introduction of public health interventions on or around March 26, 2003. This study suggests that the probability of transmission of SARS is dependent upon characteristics of the index patients and does not simply reflect temporal variability in the viral load of SARS cases.
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