Journal
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
Volume 365, Issue 1857, Pages 2179-2191Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2079
Keywords
ensemble forecasts; decadal predictability; ocean-atmosphere analyses
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Sensitivity experiments using a coupled model initialized from analysed atmospheric and oceanic observations are used to investigate the potential for interannual-to-decadal predictability. The potential for extending seasonal predictions to longer time scales is explored using the same coupled model configuration and initialization procedure as used for seasonal prediction. It is found that, despite model drift, climatic signals on interannual-to-decadal time scales appear to be detectable. Two climatic states have been chosen: one starting in 1965, i.e. ahead of a period of global cooling, and the other in 1994, ahead of a period of global warming. The impact of initial conditions and of the different levels of greenhouse gases are isolated in order to gain insights into the source of predictability.
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