Journal
JOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS
Volume 14, Issue 9, Pages 667-674Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2893.2007.00864.x
Keywords
coalescence theory; hepatitis C virus; hepatitis Delta virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; molecular epidemiology; Mongolia
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An estimated incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Mongolia is currently one of the highest in the world. According to previous reports, the sero-prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses in general population of the country is very high (HBV, 10% and HCV, 15%, respectively). Moreover, the majority (75-100%) of the HBV-infected individuals have co-infection with hepatitis Delta virus (HDV). Despite reported observations that HBV + HDV/HCV co-infection have significantly stronger association with HCC when compared with HCV-monoinfection, the later is still frequently observed among Mongolian HCC patients (39%). In this study, an approach based on principles of population genetics and mathematical epidemiology was used to trace an epidemic history of HCV and HDV. In agreement with the sero-epidemiological and social-historical background of the country, the results have demonstrated that the viruses had different epidemic dynamics in Mongolia; HCV was characterized by earlier epidemic expansion, whereas HDV spread with approximately 50 years lag. This may explain the comparable contribution of the HCV-monoinfection and HBV + HDV co-infection in current HCC rate despite different levels of risk of carcinogenesis. Used approach is useful in evaluation of current and prospective disease burden.
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