Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS AND MINING SCIENCES
Volume 44, Issue 6, Pages 922-935Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrmms.2007.02.008
Keywords
probability; rock slopes; correlation; Monte Carlo; response surface
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A two-dimensional rock slope in Hong Kong and a three-dimensional hypothetical tetrahedral wedge are analyzed probabilistically using an intuitive and transparent constrained optimization approach for the first-order reliability method (FORM). The results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations. Simple procedures for incorporating truncated non-normal distributions in reliability analysis are described. The effects of statistical correlations on the computed reliability index are studied. The difference between probabilities of failure inferred from reliability index and from Monte Carlo simulations are investigated via the response surface method. It is shown that the efficiency of reliability-based approach can be combined with the robustness of Monte Carlo simulation. The meanings of reliability index and probability of failure are also discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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