Evaluation of monthly capacity factor of WECS using chronological and probabilistic wind speed data: A case study of Taiwan

Monthly energy outputs and capacity factors of an existing median-scale wind power station located in Mailiao, Taiwan, have been analyzed by using the measured half-hourly wind speed data over a period spanned between 2002 and 2005. The wind speed data in the chronological (time-series) format and probabilistic (Weibull) format are used to estimate the monthly capacity factors of Vestas V47-660 KW turbines in Mailiao. The monthly capacity factors calculated from the chronological and probabilistic approaches are compared with and validated by the measured capacity factors obtained in Mailiao. In addition, due to the climatic features of the Asia monsoon, there are two prominent wind periods within a year in Taiwan, i.e., the strong (October-March) and weak (April-September) wind periods. This study also investigates the differences of the measured and calculated capacity factors in the strong and weak wind periods of Mailiao. It is shown that the capacity factors calculated from the time-series approach have better agreement with the actual capacity factors than the Weibull approach. Both approaches have slightly underestimated the capacity factors in the strong wind period, but have significantly overestimated the capacity factors in the weak wind period. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.