Seismic hazard estimates for sites in the stable Canadian craton

We address the challenging and economically important problem of seismic hazard estimation at low probabilities for stable cratonic regions such as central Canada which are characterized by very low seismicity rates. At low probabilities, large uncertainties in the seismicity rates result in calculated seismic hazards that are not negligible for practical purposes and may have significant implications for design and retrofit of critical structures such as hydroelectric and tailings dams. We examine the statistics of earthquake magnitude recurrence in such regions and their implications for hazard estimates at low probabilities. Recommendations for low-probability ground motions are provided that are related to the design life of the facilities.