When will the eel recover?: A full life-cycle model

The European eel population has declined over the past decades in most of its distribution area, and the stock is outside safe biological limits. The EU has taken up the challenge to design a management system that ensures the escapement of 40% of spawning-stock biomass, relative to unexploited, unpolluted circumstances in unobstructed rivers. This ultimately aims to restore the spawning stock to a level at which glass eel production is not impaired, i.e. to restore to full historical glass eel recruitment. To explore the trajectory from the current depleted state to full recruitment recovery, we developed a simple model of stock dynamics, based on a simplified stock- recruitment relationship and the conventional dynamic pool assumptions. Recruitment trajectories under different future fishery regimes are explored, for the medium (one generation time) and long time-span (until full recruitment recovery). Reducing fisheries to zero, recovery is expected within similar to 80 years, whereas under an ultimately sustainable fishing regime of just 10% of the current rate of fishing mortality, recovery may take more than 200 years. Moreover, management regimes, apparently leading to slight recovery of the stock in the coming 5-15 years, might still be unsustainable in the long run.