Modeling the role of irrigation in winter wheat yield, crop water productivity, and production in China

Irrigation plays an important role in increasing food production in China. The impact of irrigation on crop yield (Y), crop water productivity (CWP), and production has not been quantified systematically across regions covering the whole country. In this study, a GIS-based EPIC model (GEPIC) was applied to simulate Y and CWP for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China at a grid resolution of 5 arc-minutes and to analyze the impacts of reducing irrigation water on wheat production. The findings show that irrigation is especially important in improving CWP of winter wheat in the North China Plain (NCP), the bread basket of China. On average, the provincial aggregate CWP was 56% higher under the irrigated than that under the rainfed conditions. The intensification of water stress and the associated increase in environmental problems in much of the NCP require critical thoughts about reducing water allocation for irrigated winter wheat. Two scenarios for irrigation reduction in the NCP provinces are presented: reducing irrigation depth (S1), and replacing irrigated winter wheat by rainfed winter wheat (S2). The simulation results show that S1 and S2 have similar effects on wheat production when the reduction in irrigation water supply is below 20% of the current level. Above this percentage, S2 appears to be a better scenario since it leads to less reduction in wheat production with the same amount of water saving.