Transmission parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N1) among industrial poultry farms in northern Italy in 1999-2000

We estimated between-farm transmission parameters of the highly pathogenic avian-influenza (HPAI) epidemic that struck the poultry industry of northern Italy (including turkeys, layer hens, broilers, gamebirds, and waterfowl) from December 1999 through April 2000. We estimated the average number of susceptible farms that were infected with HPAI virus by each infectious farm during a day (beta) with a generalised linear model (GLM). The HPAI's reproductive ratios (R-h; the average number of new infected farms (IFs) that were caused by an infectious farm) were calculated separately for the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where 382 out of 413 (92.5%) of IFs were located. In both regions, R-h decreased to similar to 1 during the second month of the epidemic (showing that its containment had been initiated). Subsequently, during the last two months of the epidemic, beta and R-h were reduced to 0.04/day and 0.6, respectively, in Veneto and to 0.07/day and 0.8 in Lombardy. The reduction of the susceptible population through strict control measures, including pre-emptive slaughter of at-risk poultry flocks, was implemented to a greatest extent in Veneto and this might have been associated with a more rapid control of the epidemic in this region than in Lombardy. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.