Development of and recovery from short- and long-term low back pain in occupational settings: A prospective cohort study

Using the data of the EuroBack Unit prospective cohort study, this paper investigated the role of work-related physical factors and psychological variables in predicting the development of and recovery from short-term and long-term LBP. At baseline, 1294 predominantly male industrial workers from 10 companies in Belgium and the Netherlands filled in questionnaires. At follow-up, data from 812 employees were available. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using simple and multiple logistic regression analyses. For those workers reporting 0 days LBP in the year prior to baseline, negative affectivity (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.0 1-1. 11) was a risk factor for the development of short-term LBP (=1-30 days total of LBP in the year prior to follow-up). For those who reported 1-30 days total of LBP in the year prior to baseline, only high fear of (re)injury due to movement (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12) increased the risk for failure to recovery from short-term LBP. For the development of long-term LBP (=more than 30 days total of LBP in the year prior to follow-up), a significant increased risk was observed among workers with high pain severity (OR 1. 19, 95% CI 1.0 1-1.40) and with pain referred to the ankles or feet (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.09-7.83). The risk was reduced by social support of co-workers (OR 0.73, 95% Cl 0.59-0.92) and by manual handling of materials (OR 0.63, 95% Cl 0.46-0.85). For those who reported more than 30 days total of LBP in the year prior to baseline, high pain severity (OR 1. 18, 95% CI 1.04-1.34) increased the risk for failure to recovery from long-term LBP. Results are compared to the baseline study (Gheldof et al., 2005) and discussed in relation with prospective studies. (c) 2007 European Federation of Chapters of the International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.