Biotic Interactions, Rapid Evolution, and the Establishment of Introduced Species

The biotic environment can pose a challenge to introduced species; however, it is not known how rapid evolution in introduced and resident species influences the probability that the introduced species will become established. Here, we analyze the establishment phase of invasion with eco-evolutionary models of introduced species involved in predator-prey, mutualistic, or competitive interactions with a resident species. We find that, depending on the strength of the biotic interaction, establishment is impossible, guaranteed, or, in a narrow range, determined by genetic variation. Over this narrow range, rapid evolution of the introduced species always favors establishment, whereas resident evolution may either inhibit or facilitate establishment, depending on the interaction type. Coevolution can also either increase or decrease the chance of establishment, depending on the initial genotype frequencies as well as the interaction type. Our results suggest that the conditions under which genetic variation influences establishment success are limited, but they highlight the importance of considering the resident community's evolutionary response to introduced species as a component of its invasibility.