Journal
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE
Volume 87, Issue 6, Pages 1012-1021Publisher
AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE
DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.12-0390
Keywords
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Funding
- Wellcome Trust [095127, 079080, 092654]
- Federal Ministry of Health
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Evidence shows that malaria risk maps are rarely tailored to address national control program ambitions. Here, we generate a malaria risk map adapted for malaria control in Sudan. Community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data from 2000 to 2010 were assembled and were standardized to 2-10 years of age (PfPR(2-10)). Space-time Bayesian geostatistical methods were used to generate a map of malaria risk for 2010. Surfaces of aridity, urbanization, irrigation schemes, and refugee camps were combined with the PfPR(2-10) map to tailor the epidemiological stratification for appropriate intervention design. In 2010, a majority of the geographical area of the Sudan had risk of < 1% PfPR(2-10). Areas of meso- and hyperendemic risk were located in the south. About 80% of Sudan's population in 2011 was in the areas in the desert, urban centers, or where risk was < 1% PfPR(2-10). Aggregated data suggest reducing risks in some high transmission areas since the 1960s.
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