Ranking and selection of power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under uncertainty

Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.