Prediction of the combination of failure modes for an arch bridge system

An innovative prediction method for the combination of failure modes of an arch bridge is proposed for its probabilistic risk assessment and is compared with the conventional system reliability analysis method. The suggested method reveals various combinations of failure modes in significantly reduced time and efforts in comparison to the previous permutation method or the conventional system reliability analysis method. Additionally, the suggested method can be used for the verification of the system reliability with more specific predictions of the failure modes. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated by using response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections, i.e. the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for the reliability analyses of complex structure with relatively small probability of failure. Previous methods such as Monte Carlo Simulations or First Order Second Moment method cannot easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. Hence, the target bridge system is modeled as a series-connection system for the analysis of its system reliability. The upper and lower bound of the probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and are compared with the suggested prediction method for all possible combination of failure modes. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.