A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. (Am J Public Health. 2010;100:616-622. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.159434)