Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States

Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However, a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza, and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical care. We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes and methods We also believe that secondary bacterial infections will likely result insubstantial morbidity and mortality during a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress. (Am J Public Health 2009;99 S225-S230. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2008.151944)