Journal
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
Volume 55, Issue 4, Pages 665-676Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.010
Keywords
forecasting; monetary policy; factor model; real-time data; nowcast
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A tormal method is developed for evaluating the marginal impact that intra-monthly data releases have on current-quarter forecasts (nowcasts) of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The method can track the real-time flow of the type of information monitored by central banks because it can handle large data sets with staggered data-release dates. Each time new data are released, the nowcasts are updated on the basis of progressively larger data sets that, reflecting the unsynchronized datarelease dates, have a jagged edge across the most recent months. (c) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.
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