Journal
ENERGY ECONOMICS
Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 1909-1932Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2007.03.006
Keywords
real options; Monte Carlo simulation; liquefied natural gas; volatility; stochastic simulation
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available