Modelling vegetation greenness responses to climate variability in a Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystem

This work presents a modelling study where monthly-based climate data are used to estimate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The latter is a measure of vegetation greenness, usually derived from satellite-driven information. A model was developed to link NDVI data to rainfall and temperature measures. The test area was a 3x3 km grid centred to the top of Monte Pino hill (Southern Italy), for which multi-year (from 1996 to 2004) climate and satellite-derived NDVI data were available. The simulated NDVI data compared well with the remote-sensed measurements (e.g. modelling efficiency similar to 0.80), thus showing a strong linking between vegetation greenness and climate patterns in spite of the many disturbances exerted from farming. The model was used to reconstruct an extended series of monthly NDVI values for a period antecedent 1996 (1972-1995). The analysis of long-term anomalies indicated a positive trend of NDVI over time, consistent with the air temperature increase registered in the same period.