Journal
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
Volume 22, Issue 10, Pages 1461-1475Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9237-1
Keywords
climate change; SNOWMOD; plausible hypothetical scenarios; melt characteristics; snowmelt runoff; streamflow
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The hydrological cycle, a fundamental component of climate is likely to be altered in important ways due to climate change. In this Study, the historical daily runoff has been simulated for the Chenab River basin Lip to Salal gauging site using a simple conceptual snowmelt model (SNOWMOD). The model has been used to Study the impact of plausible hypothetical scenarios of temperature and rainfall oil the melt characteristics and daily runoff of the Chenab River basin. The average value of increase ill snowmelt runoff for T+ 1 degrees C, T+2 degrees C and T+3 degrees C scenarios are obtained to be 10, 28 and 43%, respectively. Whereas, the average Value of increase in total streamflow runoff for T+ 1 degrees C, T+2 degrees C and T+3 degrees C are obtained to be 7, 19 and 28%, respectively. Changes in rainfall by -10 and + 10% vary the average annual snowmelt runoff over the T+2 degrees C scenario by -1% and + 1% only. The result shows that melt is much more sensitive to increase ill temperature than to rainfall.
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