Over-allocation or abatement? A preliminary analysis of the EU ETS based on the 2005-06 emissions data

This paper provides an initial analysis of the EU ETS based on the installation-level data for verified emissions and allowance allocations in the first 2 years of the first trading period. These data reveal that CO(2) emissions were about 3% lower than the allocated allowances. The main objective of the paper is to shed light on the extent to which over-allocation and abatement have taken place in 2005 and 2006, when a significant CO(2) price was observed. We propose a measure by which over-allocation can be judged and provide estimates of abatement based on emissions data and indicators of economic activity as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity. Finally, we discuss the insights and implications that emerge from this tentative assessment.