Journal
SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY
Volume 71, Issue 4, Pages 338-355Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/019027250807100404
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Funding
- NICHD NIH HHS [R24 HD047879] Funding Source: Medline
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Individuals influence each others' decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a self-fulfilling prophecy? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online music market, in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self-fulfllling prophecies, in which perceived-but initially false-popularity, became real over time. We also found, however, that the inversion was not self-fulfilling for the market as a whole, in part because the very best songs recovered their popularity in the long run. Moreover, the distortion of market information reduced the correlation between appeal and popularity, and led to fewer overall downloads. These results, although partial and speculative, suggest a new approach to the study of cultural markets, and indicate the potential of web-based experiments to explore, the social psychological origin of other macrosocio-logical phenomena.
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