Journal
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
Volume 173, Issue 11, Pages 1327-1335Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwr013
Keywords
biological markers; diagnosis; epidemiologic methods; prognosis; risk model
Categories
Funding
- National Institutes of Health [GM054438, CA129934]
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For comparing the performance of a baseline risk prediction model with one that includes an additional predictor, a risk reclassification analysis strategy has been proposed. The first step is to cross-classify risks calculated according to the 2 models for all study subjects. Summary measures including the percentage of reclassification and the percentage of correct reclassification are calculated, along with 2 reclassification calibration statistics. The author shows that interpretations of the proposed summary measures and P values are problematic. The author's recommendation is to display the reclassification table, because it shows interesting information, but to use alternative methods for summarizing and comparing model performance. The Net Reclassification Index has been suggested as one alternative method. The author argues for reporting components of the Net Reclassification Index because they are more clinically relevant than is the single numerical summary measure.
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