Is Youth Violence Temporally Related to Alcohol? A Time-Series Analysis of Binge Drinking, Youth Violence and Total Alcohol Consumption in Sweden

Aims: The purpose of this study is to investigate the temporal association between violence and binge drinking among Swedish youth. Two time periods are analysed, the first one representing the full observation period 1971-2009 and the second one representing a confined period 1971-2000. Furthermore, the association between population drinking and binge drinking among youths is also investigated with regards to the two time periods. Methods: ARIMA modelling was applied in order to estimate these associations. Results: Based on the confined time period (1971-2000), analyses revealed that four out of six estimates (two where borderline) of the association between binge drinking and violence (self-reported as well as convictions for assaults) were positive and statistically significant. However, most estimates became non-significant when the full study period (1971-2009) was analysed. The analyses of the relationship between total consumption and youth binge drinking revealed that binge drinking among military conscripts and boys was affected by changes in total consumption during the shorter confined study period. These associations became non-significant when the full study period was included in the models. Conclusions: (a) there was a positive relationship between violence and binge drinking among Swedish youth at the aggregated level, but mainly with regards to the shorter study period, (b) changes in per capita alcohol consumption were associated with binge drinking among young men and this was more evident for the shorter study period and (c) there was empirical evidence for the idea that these associations became weaker or nonexistent after the year 2000.