Journal
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
Volume 151, Issue 3, Pages 406-413Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.11.001
Keywords
Full bloom; Apples and pears; Climate change; Southwestern Cape
Categories
Funding
- National Research Foundation
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Studies from throughout the world have demonstrated that tree phenophases are becoming earlier in spring and are closely associated with rising temperatures. Despite many such studies from the Northern Hemisphere, similar comparative work has not been forthcoming from the Southern Hemisphere or from Africa. In addition, few studies have demonstrated the possible role of changes in precipitation and associated soil moisture to driving fruit tree phenophases. Here we provide changes of mean full bloom dates for three apple Malus domestica (Golden Delicious, Sayaka, Granny Smith) and one pear Pyrus communis (Bon Chretien) cultivars in the southwestern Cape of South Africa. These phenological changes are correlated with temperature and precipitation changes in the same region between 1973 and 2009. Significant early spring (August/September) temperature increases of +0.45 degrees C/decade are associated with a mean full bloom advance of 1.6d/decade over the last 37 years. Golden Delicious apple trees have the strongest sensitivity (+4.2 d/degrees C) to climate change in the region, whilst Granny Smith apple trees have the lowest (+2.4 d/degrees C). Although winter and early spring rainfall has also decreased over this time, such decreases are not significant. However, significant correlations are found for both temperature and rainfall when comparing with the mean full bloom dates, and it is proposed that both variables operate synergistically to influence mean full bloom dates in the southwestern Cape. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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