Journal
INTERNATIONAL ADVANCES IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Volume 15, Issue 4, Pages 409-420Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11294-009-9233-8
Keywords
Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE); Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (RMAPE); Forecasting accuracy; Coefficient of variation (c. v.); Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Categories
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Commonly used Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the authors' revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (RMAPE) are applied to measure the forecasting accuracy from different Moving Average Methods for independent time series. Simulation results show that both MAPE and RMAPE can only provide sensitive forecasting accuracy measurements on Moving Average Methods when coefficients of variation (c.v.) are smaller than 0.4 or is much greater than 4.0 for those independent time series. For independent time series with moderate c.v.'s, the complexity from the ratios of MAPE and RMAPE will mislead researchers on distinguishing the forecasting accuracies from different Moving Average Methods. The complexity from the ratios will be released only when the c.v. is very small, or when the c.v. is very large. Therefore, when data are from independent time series, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) reveals valid the forecasting accuracies from various Moving Average Methods, but not from MAPE or RMAPE.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available