Journal
EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
Volume 38, Issue 3, Pages 583-603Publisher
PHYSICA-VERLAG GMBH & CO
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-009-0280-z
Keywords
Gateway hypothesis; Illicit drugs; Duration analysis; Latent class models
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The gateway hypothesis proposes that use of cannabis directly increases the risk of consuming hard drugs. We test this controversial, but influential, hypothesis on a sample of cannabis users, exploiting a unique set of drug price data. A flexible approach is developed to identify the causal gateway effect using a bivariate survival model with shared frailty estimated using a latent class approach. The model suggests two distinct groups; a smaller group of troubled youths for whom there is a statistically significant gateway effect that more than doubles the hazard of starting to use hard drugs and a larger fraction of youths for whom previous cannabis use has less impact.
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