Journal
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Volume 26, Issue 3, Pages 460-470Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.002
Keywords
Sports forecasting; Loss function; Evaluating forecasts; Rating; Ordered logit
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Sports betting markets are becoming increasingly competitive. These markets are of interest when testing new ideas for quantitative prediction models. This paper examines the value of assigning ratings to teams based on their past performance in order to predict match results in association football. The ELO rating system is used to derive covariates that are then used in ordered logit regression models. In order to make informed statements about the relative merit of the ELO-based predictions compared to those from a set of six benchmark prediction methods, both economic and statistical measures are used. The results of large-scale computational experiments are presented. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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