Journal
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 77, Issue 8, Pages 1214-1221Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.008
Keywords
Sustainability transitions; Socio-technical pathways; Multi-level perspective; Electricity sector; Energy infrastructure
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This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways. The paper describes three possible transition pathways and indicates the implications for (grid) infrastructures. The 'transformation pathway' is characterised by a further hybridization of the infrastructure: in the 'reconfiguration pathway', internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a 'Supergrid'. The 'de-alignment and re-alignment pathway' is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. We suggest that this pathway, which involves a major restructuring of the electricity system, is less likely than the other two. The dealignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. All pathways, however, require major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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