Scenario-based multiple criteria analysis for infrastructure policy impacts and planning

The consideration of emergent scenarios of economy, environment, technology, etc. is mandated by the US Department of Transportation for long-range transportation planning of infrastructure that will involve federal funding. This paper develops a practical methodology of scenario-based planning within a multi-criteria decision aid to support the comparison of transportation policies across state, regional, and local agencies. The methodology is demonstrated in a case study. First, we review existing methods and practices of scenario-based planning. Second, we perform a limited survey of select Metropolitan Planning Organizations on their concerns for emergent scenarios. Third, we develop the methodology for scenario-based reweighting of an additive value function. Fourth, we demonstrate the methodology in four regions in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The paper builds in part on an existing approach to adjust the weights performance criteria based on scenarios. Our approach uses emergent scenarios to reweight multiple performance criteria with an efficient use of survey/expert information.