Journal
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
Volume 93, Issue 3, Pages 970-981Publisher
MIT PRESS
DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00106
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Employing droughts and floods to proxy for changes in precipitation, this paper shows nomadic incursions into settled Han Chinese regions over a period of more than two thousand years-the most enduring clash of civilizations in history-to be positively correlated with less rainfall and negatively correlated with more rainfall. Consistent with findings that economic shocks are positively correlated with conflicts in modern sub-Saharan Africa when instrumented by rainfall, our reduced-form results extend this relationship to a very different temporal and geographical context, the Asian continent, and long historical period.
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