Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran

Land use changes, sprawl and its implications for natural lands (garden, agricultural and cultivated lands) have received increasing consideration in many countries and regions over the past decades. However, our knowledge of analysis of land use changes and urban sprawl resulted by the loss of natural land is still unclear specifically in developing countries such as Iran. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze and predict the trend of land use changes and sprawl since 1986-2040 in Mazandaran city region in the northern part of Iran. In this regard, the SLEUTH and Land Transformation Models (LTM) were used to predict the use of natural lands. The data used in this study included satellite images of remote sensing (Landsat TM) in 1986, 1996, 2006 and 2015. Results show that the process of destruction of natural lands has intensified in favor of construction process, in a way that built-up lands with a growth rate of 4.79% changed from 30.91 km(2) in 1986 to 120.04 km(2) in 2015. It is predicted that built-up lands will increase by 4.82% growth in 2040. While, garden lands will have 1.3% decrease because of its adjacent to urban lands and locating in the built-up areas. Most changes in forest lands have been reduced by 1.8% if these lands are highly valued as national and regional potentials and may change the animal and plant species cycle. Agricultural lands have been reduced by 1.12%, but due to the fact that the largest share of land in the study area is cultivated and its decline is less than that of other lands. The trend of land use changes indicates that the region will inevitably develop and expand in the future. But, its consequences can be controlled by applying suitable policies and solutions.