Journal
IEEE ACCESS
Volume 6, Issue -, Pages 29499-29515Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2843166
Keywords
Dynamic systems; fault tree analysis; fuzzy set theory; Petri nets; reliability analysis
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Funding
- DEIS H2020 Project [732242]
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Critical technological systems exhibit complex dynamic characteristics such as time-dependent behavior, functional dependencies among events, sequencing and priority of causes that may alter the effects of failure. Dynamic fault trees (DFTs) have been used in the past to model the failure logic of such systems, but the quantitative analysis of DFTs has assumed the existence of precise failure data and statistical independence among events, which are unrealistic assumptions. In this paper, we propose an improved approach to reliability analysis of dynamic systems, allowing for uncertain failure data and statistical and stochastic dependencies among events. In the proposed framework, DFTs are used for dynamic failure modeling. Quantitative evaluation of DFTs is performed by converting them into generalized stochastic Petri nets. When failure data are unavailable, expert judgment and fuzzy set theory are used to obtain reasonable estimates. The approach is demonstrated on a simplified model of a cardiac assist system.
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