Journal
EARTHS FUTURE
Volume 6, Issue 3, Pages 339-358Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000734
Keywords
Climate Change; Precipitation; Temperature; +1; 5{degree sign}C Warming; Asian-Australian Monsoon Region; +2; 0{degree sign}C Warming
Funding
- UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund, through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
- NERC REAL Projections project [NE/N018591/1]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council [NE/L010976/1]
- Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- Natural Environment Research Council [ncas10008, ncas10003, ncas10005, ncas10009, NE/R015244/1, NE/L010976/1, NE/N018591/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [NE/N018591/1, NE/L010976/1, ncas10003, ncas10005, ncas10008] Funding Source: UKRI
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In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5 degrees C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5 degrees C warming.
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