Dynamic analysis of ecological footprints of Nanchong City in the process of urbanization

Using the ecological footprint theory and model, 2004-2007 statistical yearbook in NanChong city as data sources, it calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity above year and using grey prediction model GM (1, 1) it predict 2008-2012 the ecological footprint of NanChong city and analyze the ecological footprint dynamic change regulation and the reasons in NanChong city. The results of the study show that: the ecological deficit in NanChong city is increasing year by year, reaching to 3.012 hm(2)/person by 2012. The main effect factors are population growth, farmland shrinking and resource consumption serious causing by the urbanization process. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of [CEIS 2011]