A tentative evaluation for population establishment of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) by its population modeling: Considering the temporal distribution of host plants in a selected area in Jeju, Korea

The Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a destructive fruit pest in a wide range of cultivated fruit crops and wild plants. This species is a potentially highly invasive fruit fly to Jeju area of Korea. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of host plants distributed temporally on the population development of B. dorsalis. The temperature-dependent bionomic data for a synonymous group of B. dorsalis, including B. philippinensis, B. papayae, and B. invadens were collected from previous publications and combined to construct a population model of this pest and its thermal constant. We developed a stage-transition model of eggs, larvae and pupae, and an oviposition model for basic population modeling of the four common strains. We investigated the abundance of the host plants of B. dorsalis in a selected site in Jeju and parameterized them in terms of temporal availability to incorporate into the population model. The contribution of host plants for the population growth of B. dorsalis in the selected site was different according to the group of host plants. For example, B. dorsalis populations largely decreased by 93%, when host plants belong to Moraceae (mainly Ficus sp.) were removed in the simulation. Also, we found that the host plants of Prunus persica, Ficus carica, P. manse, Eriobotrya japonica in this order contributed greatly to population abundance of B. dorsalis in the selected area, which was important in terms of mid-season host plants connecting the early adult population of B. dorsalis to citrus plants in the late season. Finally, we discussed a seasonal management strategy against B. dorsalis while considering the availability of host plants and the biology of this fruit fly in an invaded area.